The drop in rates came as little surprise to the swaps market, which has adjusted its expectations downwards through the prompt months. Gradual-week-on week falls are still expected on the Asia-Europe trade until the first quarter of 2011.

Moving into 2011, the forward curve shows a fairly flat first quarter to the year, with a muted upside through Q3 and post-peak season Q4 averages expected to fall back to Q2 levels.

Transpacific rates have continued to fall dramatically through October (US west coast 9.4%, east coast 8.9%) with little sign of winter scheduling or lay-ups. Poor capacity management and strong backhaul rates, bolstered by a bumper US grain harvest, may be among contributory factors.

Opinion in the market varies widely throughout the curve. Debate has focused on the continued inter-liner discipline of lay-up schedules during the traditionally slack periods of Q1 and Q2 2011. Market share plays in an otherwise stable market could precipitate significant volatility and falling rates throughout these first quarters with an all-out collapse of rates a very present concern.

Beyond capacity management, volatile bunker rates, currency fluctuations, interest rate levels and consumer impacting political policies continue to present themselves among a myriad of factors that make it extremely difficult to gauge rates reliably moving forwards.